A Study of Power Sources Optimization in Guangdong
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摘要:The main problem existing in Guangdong electric power sources is analyzed in this paper. Based on the analysis on energy-supply features, power demand and the technical and economic performances of various power sources in Guangdong, the power sou..

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The main problem existing in Guangdong electric power sources is analyzed in this paper. Based on the analysis on energy-supply features, power demand and the technical and economic performances of various power sources in Guangdong, the power sources construction scale and its structure are studied and analyzed in detail by using Generation Expansion Software Package (GESP). The future development of Guangdong electric power sources under the new situation of "Power from West to East" is studied as well.

[Keywords] power sources optimization ? power demand and supply ? sensibility analysis ?planning

1. Main Problems Involved in Guangdong's Power Sources Development

Since reforming and opening to the outside, the electricity generating installed capacity was increased from 2810 MW in 1980 to 30330 MW in 1999 with a newly built capacity of 1450 MW on the basis of year by year. However, there exist considerably structural contradictions. The irrationality of Guangdong's power sources structure is dominantly revealed as below: (1) The proportion of small-sized thermal power is too large. By the end of 1999, small-sized thermal power units each with a capacity of 50 MW and below amounted to 11030 MW, accounting for 36.3% of a combined generating capacity throughout the province. (2) The proportion of oil-fired power plants is on the large side. By the end of 1999, the oil-fired generating units with a combined capacity of 9840 MW, accounted for 32.4% of the total in the whole province. In 2000, as oil price always retained at the high level, therefore these oil-fired units were put out of operation or reduced their output, so that a larger gap between supply and demand appeared (lacking about 1500MW). It fully reflected problems existing in Guangdong that its power sources structure was vulnerable and risk-resisting strength was poor. (3) The capability of peak load power plants is limited in number. The capacity of coal-fired power plants makes up 41% of the total in the province. The peak load regulating capability of coal-fired plants (minimum technical output factor can reach 60% ~ 80%) is very low, except Shajiao B Power Plant and Shajiao C Power plant whose minimum technical output factor can be lower than 35%. In regard to hydropower stations, most of them are run-of-river ones. They have no capability to regulate peak load. The proportion of oil-fired power plants is 32.4%. Most of them are diesel generating plants and small internal combustion engine power plants. However, the vast majority of the power plants play not quite important role in peak load operation owing to the constraints of managerial system, economic operation and others. Nuclear power plant does not participates in peak load regulation. At present, Guangdong has a pumped-storage power of 1800 MW, but it can not keep pace with development of Guangdong power system. Judging from this, the situation of peak load regulation in the province will become more severe day by day. One of important reasons for the occurrence is in it that a thorough study of power sources optimization has never before conducted in view of the characteristics of its resources and power system.

2. Research Aim, Basic Thinking and Technical Means

A study of Guangdong's power sources optimization aimed at exploring the orientation of power sources development in the province to provide a scientific basis for the optimization and readjustment of its power sources structure. On account of this aim, first research tools were determined by comparison, then basic research conditions were established in the light of the situations of the province's various resources and energy sources supply. After that, the optimized structure of power sources was researched. And the sensibility pointed at the different changing conditions was analyzed, to find out the suitability of optimized structure of power sources and a general law as far as possible.

This research work adopted a Generation Expansion Software Package (GESP) developed by the Power Economics Research Center, the State Power Corporation. It utilized a mixed integer programming method, to simulate an investment decision and a productive operation into a model of the same level and to carry out a global optimization. In principle, it could ensure that the scenarios of power sources expansion be optimized. The target of power sources optimization was to make the total minimum cost (investment and operating cost) of an expanded scenario. This model was considered to cover the various forms of thermal power, hydropower (compensation regulation thereof) and pumped-storage power plants, etc. It could be applicable to solve a question of power sources optimization in a single region and analyze that in multiple regions as well. And it could take into account different influencing factors, such as system reserve, construction capacity of power sources, requirements for generating units, peaking capacity of thermal power units and properties of coal rate, fuel consumption and quality, reservoir capacity of pumped-storage power station, commissioning sequence of hydropower stations and kinetic energy. Its validity and scientificalness have obtained probation in the state's key projects, for example, the Three Gorges Project's optimization demonstration and was identified by the World Bank.

3. Fundamental Conditions

3.1 Energy supply
Guangdong is seriously short of energy resources. It has assured coal reserves of 597 Mt (426 Mt converted into standard coal) in poor quality. It is rich in oil shale, ranking second in the whole country. Its industrially exploitable reserves, difficult to be tapped in the near future on a large scale, is 4100 Mt (877 Mt converted into standard coal). The exploitable hydropower capacity amounts to 6650 MW, and an annual generation to 24.2 TWh. By the end of 1999, a exploited hydropower was 4500 MW with an exploitation rate of 68%. The oil and gas reserves in China South Sea, with an annual production of 14 Mt, prospect very well. However, Guangdong has no right to allocate it. The exploitable wind power amounts to 6 GW. To date, it is not yet utilized on a largely commercial scale. Presently, the self-sufficiency rate is only 10.3% in Guangdong. In view of the above-mentioned facts and the achievements in the province's energy resources balance research, brought out by Guangdong Planning Commission, the several forms of energy resources for power generation were considered below:

?(1) Water and wind power resources: Proceed from regulation capacity, hydropower development is prior to other energy resources in the province. In this research, a hydropower of 840 MW in capacity was to be developed. The exploitation rate of hydropower in Guangdong will reach 80%, when its construction is completed up to 2010. Wind power was not taken into account because of high cost. In so far as hydropower outside the province, the hydropower in the southwestern China was mainly taken into consideration, such as Tianshengqiao, Longtan and Xiaowan hydropower stations.

?(2) Coal resources: The prerequisites supposed in the research were as follows.
Coal to be supplied from the province would be 3 Mt/yr, coal to be supplied from the neighbouring province 5 Mt/a, that from Shanxi, Shaanxi and west Inner Mongolia (called "three west") 52 Mt/a in 2010, 77 Mt/a in 2015. In addition, the possibility of coal from abroad was researched.

?(3) Natural gas: In view of preconstruction work of gas-fired power plant in Guangdong, there are two Kinds of pipeline-natural gas and LNG to be considered, of which the former should satisfy the need of 2 GW generating units, the latter should reach 4 Mt/a.

?(4) Other energy resources: This research didn't involve the building of new oil-fired power plants according to Guangdong's energy policy. During the planning period, the available quantity of nuclear fuel was not defined.

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